CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

Postby Oscar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:05 pm

CETA appears to be on hold, Council of Canadians calls for new study of the deal

[ http://canadians.org/blog/ceta-appears- ... study-deal ]

June 24, 2016 - 5:56 pm

Will Harper's free trade deal with the European Union survive Brexit?

With the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union, the Council of Canadians is calling on the Trudeau government to support our call for the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) to conduct an independent analysis of a Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) minus Great Britain.

We believe it is prudent for the Canadian government to delay their signing of the deal (scheduled for October 27) and conduct a new study on this 'free trade' deal given both the turn of events yesterday with the Brexit vote and the reality that the Canada-EU feasibility study that provided the rationale for CETA talks is now almost a decade old.

The CBC notes, "Canada does far more business with the UK than other EU countries", "CETA was based on tradeoffs and calculations that included British consumers and businesses — compromises that were sometimes painful and prolonged", the UK represents about 10 per cent of the beef sector Canada was hoping to gain with the deal, and, after all, the UK is the second largest economy in the EU.

In terms of the beef sector, an iPolitics article quotes John Masswhol, director of government and international relations for the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, who says each commodity group will have to "re-assess" the value of the deal now, adding "Maybe the value is the same, maybe it isn't. It's too early to draw conclusions."

Unfortunately, the CBC reports, "Early Friday morning, [trade minister Chrystia Freeland] spoke to her European Union counterpart, Cecilia Malmstrom, and reiterated that Canada's commitment to ratifying their 'gold-plated' trade deal remains firm." We believe this is a hasty position for the government to take.

That said, the CBC suggests Freeland's optimism could be "wishful thinking".

Their analysis notes, "The summer agenda in Brussels is now in flux, depending on how quickly the British move to begin divorce proceedings with the European Union." They also note, "With critical ratification votes ahead, the real problem may be losing the U.K. as Canada's political ally in Brussels, one that was very helpful generating support for the deal in more reluctant European capitals."

The Canadian Press highlights, "Canada's envoy to Britain, High Commissioner Gordon Campbell, [said] prior to the referendum that a leave victory could scuttle CETA because the EU would become overwhelmed with negotiating Britain's departure." That article also quotes Fen Hampson, a foreign policy expert at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, who says, "I would say CETA is probably dead." A Toronto Star article quotes Greg Tereposky, a partner at law firm Borden Ladner Gervais who specializes in international trade, who says, “My view on this, and it’s entirely speculation, but we will have CETA go into a holding pattern, at least for the foreseeable future." And a Radio Canada article quotes Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, who says, "It may have gone so far that this isn’t going to completely derail it, but the widespread view was the UK was Canada’s biggest supporter and driver for this deal with the European Union and now with them stepping away from the European Union, one does have to wonder about the fate of CETA."

The United Kingdom was reportedly a key ally to Canada in its ongoing effort to get the EU to approve two antimicrobial solutions used to wash beef and pork carcasses. Those approvals have not yet been secured. And the UK was also an ally to Canada in promoting the export of genetically modified crops to Europe.

In terms of next steps, CBC adds, "Votes in the European Parliament in Brussels can be unpredictable. Freeland has been open about the need for Canada to keep lobbying to overcome resistance to ratifying in some countries. Her campaign — and she calls it that — may be made longer, or harder, with a Brexit."

The Council of Canadians is prepared to continue to campaign against CETA and to promote trade relations with the UK and the European Union that are based on social and ecological justice.

To read about our campaign to stop CETA, please click here:
[ http://canadians.org/ceta ]


Further reading:

The Brexit vote and CETA

[ http://canadians.org/blog/brexit-vote-and-ceta ]


Brent Patterson's blog
Political Director of the Council of Canadians
[ http://canadians.org/blogs/brent-patterson ]
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Re: CETA appears to be on hold, Council of Canadians calls f

Postby Oscar » Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:18 am

CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

[ http://canadians.org/media/ceta-vulnera ... -canadians ]

Media Release July 5, 2016

Ottawa – Today, the European Commission recommended that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU go to the EU parliament as a mixed agreement, meaning that it will require the approval of national parliaments.

“Having worked with European civil society organizations, it’s clear that there is a growing resistance to CETA, and that its ratification is not the cakewalk that Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland suggests it will be,” says Maude Barlow, National Chairperson of the Council of Canadians.

The issue for the European Union is whether or not CETA requires the approval of member states as well as the European Parliament. The member states in the European Union are adamant that it is a mixed agreement. The countries say that provisions on investment and other issues are in their domestic jurisdiction, not that of the European Union.

The agreement will now have to be adopted by all the member states, where there is growing opposition. Romania and Bulgaria have said that they will vote against CETA if Canada doesn’t change its visa requirements. In Belgium and Germany, where regional or lower house parliaments would have a say, Wallonia has stated it would reject CETA, and the German lower house, the Bundesrat, is also likely to defeat the agreement. As well, in the Netherlands, citizens are initiating a referendum on CETA. Poland, Slovenia, and Austria have also expressed grave concerns.

Given the uncertainty around Brexit and the fact that our largest EU trading partner is no longer in CETA, the Council of Canadians calls on the federal government to take a step back and do a proper cost-benefit analysis of CETA.

“Like many Canadians, Europeans are worried about CETA’s attacks on democracy, its weakening of social and safety standards, its contribution to privatization and attacks on public services,” says Barlow. “After the Brexit vote, policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic would be better counseled to listen to voters, rather than pushing discredited solutions down people’s throats.”

The Council of Canadians has been actively lobbying elected officials in Europe and Canada for the past seven years. The European Council is expected to vote on CETA on October 18. It will then go to the European Parliament and member states. -30-

For media calls:

Dylan Penner, Media Officer
Cell: (613) 795-8685
Office: (613) 233-4487, ext. 249
E-mail: dpenner@canadians.org

- - -

CETA BACKGROUND:
[ http://canadians.org/ceta ]

= = = = = =

Canada-EU trade pact on track, say Freeland and EU ambassador

[ http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-e ... -1.2973939 ]

Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press
Published Tuesday, July 5, 2016 1:51PM EDT Last Updated Tuesday, July 5, 2016 5:14PM EDT

OTTAWA -- The European Union is giving its 28 member countries a say on the final ratification of its mammoth free trade deal with Canada in order to quell rising anti-trade sentiments, says the continent's top envoy to Ottawa.

Marie-Anne Coninsx, the European Union's ambassador to Canada, told The Canadian Press the European Commission's decision Tuesday to proceed with a "mixed" agreement won't derail the timeline that will see the vast majority of the deal come into force early next year.

She also said that all 28 EU countries approve the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.

The mixed designation means each of the EU countries must ratify the deal, but the European Parliament's approval -- which Coninsx and others say will take place late this year or early next -- will lead to "provisional application" of the pact.

Coninsx said there was a political need to deal with the rising tide of anti-globalization forces in Europe, by giving the bloc's countries the right to ratify as part of the mixed designation.

"The main concern, or the objective of the European Commission is to make progress with CETA in a maybe difficult environment," Coninsx said in an interview.

"Given, I would say, the atmosphere in the European Union, not so much linked to the UK referendum but more a kind of a trend of anti-globalization … the European Commission has proposed a mixed agreement."

U.S. President Barack Obama said during his visit to Ottawa last week that while trade deals are crucial, the grievances about inequality being raised by working people had implications for the "social cohesion and political consensus" needed to liberalize trade across the globe.

EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom suggested as much Tuesday, saying that while the EU had the legal authority to claim exclusive jurisdiction over the deal, depriving European parliaments of a vote would do more harm than good.

"However, the political situation in the (European) Council is clear, and we understand the need for proposing it as a 'mixed' agreement, in order to allow for a speedy signature."

The Council of Canadians, a vocal opponent of trade deals, said Tuesday there is growing resistance in many EU member countries, and that ratifying it won't be the "cakewalk" that many are predicting.

"After the Brexit vote, policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic would be better counselled to listen to voters, rather than pushing discredited solutions down people's throats," Maude Barlow, the council's president, said in a statement.

MORE:

[ http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-e ... -1.2973939 ]
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Re: CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

Postby Oscar » Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:00 am

History shows CETA isn’t an easy deal

[ http://torontostar.newspaperdirect.com/ ... iewer.aspx ]

11 Jul 2016 Toronto Star Michael Geist

(Subscription Required for full article . . .)

The Canadian government has characterized the proposed Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union as its top trade priority. The deal would increase trade by removing tariffs from many products, but also create significant costs.

- - - SNIP - - -

Given this history, it was rather remarkable to see Canadian officials claim last week that the vast majority of the agreement should take effect by early 2017.

In reality, CETA has been the target of vocal opposition in Europe, and International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland faces a steep climb to turn the text into a binding agreement. The enormity of the challenge became clear in recent weeks as European officials bowed to public pressure on its plan for ratification of the agreement.

The initial plans were to treat CETA as an EU-only agreement, which would have allowed for approval from just two institutions — the EU Council (essentially the executive of the EU comprised of a representative from each of the 28 member states) and the European Parliament.

After several European countries expressed opposition to the EUonly approach, officials backtracked by announcing last week that CETA will be treated as a “mixed agreement,” which requires approval from the EU Council, the European Parliament and the parliaments of all member states (which run to 38 parliaments with regional parliaments in certain countries).

The change will mean that full implementation of CETA will take years, not months. Despite the political opposition in Europe and the further complications created by Brexit that could undercut the benefits of the agreement (the United Kingdom represents roughly one-third of Canadian trade to Europe), Canadian officials insist that CETA will receive EU Council approval in the fall and Parliamentary approval by early 2017.

If that happens, the agreement could take “provisional” effect soon after with officials claiming that approximately 90 per cent of the agreement would be operational.

Yet this plan seems certain to run into political and legal barriers. From a political perspective, several European parliaments have already expressed their opposition to CETA, suggesting that it will face a rough ride at each approval stage.

European officials tried to pacify the opposition by shifting to a mixed agreement approval process, but the plan to still provisionally apply virtually all of the agreement seems certain to inflame further political backlash.

The legal barriers may be even more daunting. European officials claim that almost the entire agreement falls within their exclusive competence, but legal experts have raised serious doubts about that interpretation.

In fact, the EU itself has referred another trade agreement — the EU-Singapore Free Trade Agreement — to the European Court of Justice to obtain guidance on which elements of that deal fall within its exclusive competence and which are shared with member states.

That court ruling is still pending, but the decision could undercut attempts to broadly apply CETA on a provisional basis.

Even if the provisional application barrier is overcome, opposition from any of the national or regional parliaments could kill CETA altogether.

Canadian officials have tried to downplay that risk, noting that such a scenario has never occurred before and suggesting that votes might be postponed indefinitely if defeat in a member state seemed likely.

But with rising opposition to trade agreements, the fallout from Brexit, and fears in Europe that a Canadian deal could pave the way for an even larger agreement with the United States, banking on past history or delayed votes suggests that CETA is in far bigger t . . . . .

- -

Michael Geist holds the Canada Research Chair in Internet and E-commerce Law at the University of Ottawa, Faculty of Law. He can be reached at mgeist@uottawa.ca or at michaelgeist.ca.
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Re: CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

Postby Oscar » Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:22 am

Canada's trade minister in the UK, May government reaffirms commitment to help get CETA ratified

[ http://canadians.org/blog/canadas-trade ... a-ratified ]

July 16, 2016 - 9:02am

Canadian trade minister Chrystia Freeland met with the United Kingdom's new Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox in London yesterday to discuss the implementation of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) as well as future UK bilateral 'free trade' agreements.

The BBC reported, "Canada has been sharing details of its trade deal with the European Union with the UK, the country's trade minister says. The Canadian model is one cited by new Brexit Minister David Davis as a possible blueprint for the UK's future relationship with the EU once it leaves. Canada's trade minister Chrystia Freeland, who is due to meet the UK's new International Trade Secretary Liam Fox later [on Friday], said there had already been some 'technical exchanges', with some 'real details of exactly how CETA works' shared with the UK."

Today, The Globe and Mail reports, "[Freeland] said the [new Prime Minister Theresa] May government has reaffirmed it will help with the European Union approval of the Canada-EU trade deal, despite the fact that London is also preparing to leave the political-economic union as a result of last month’s Brexit vote. Britain itself may end up leaving the [CETA] when it quits the EU. Ms. Freeland said she met with Liam Fox, Britain’s new Secretary of State for International Trade, 'and when I asked him if I could count on his and Britain’s continued support for CETA, he told me Britain would not just be supporting CETA, Britain would be pushing for CETA at the EU table.'"

That article adds, "The federal government has been very firm in insisting that CETA – or at least about 90 per cent of it – can take effect in 2017, despite Brexit and the need to have all 28 member parliaments ratify the agreement." This could only be achieved through the highly controversial means of 'provisional application'.

A few points to raise given this news:

1- Our British allies have raised the concern that the United Kingdom will be negotiating its own "free trade" deals post-Brexit that will be as corporate-friendly and as anti-democratic as CETA. The news report that Freeland is talking with Fox about CETA - with its so-called "investment protection" provisions - as a blueprint for a UK-EU-Canada deal adds to that concern.

2- A post-graduate law student at Queen Mary University, London has written, "If the UK does not withdraw from the EU until after CETA has been ratified then Art. 30.9(2) of CETA will apply. This provides that Chapter 8 [the Investment Tribunal chapter] will apply for 20 years after the date at which the Agreement is terminated in respect of all investments made while it was in effect. As such, in this case, the UK will be subject to Chapter 8 for 20 years after it officially leaves the EU."

3- Lawyers at ClientEarth have stated, "The [European] Commission’s proposal on provisional application of the Canada-EU trade agreement (CETA) violates EU law. The EU can only provisionally apply those parts of the international agreement over which it has exclusive powers. However ... the Commission is seeking to provisionally apply CETA in its entirety. This violates the founding treaties of the EU." Our German allies, Mehr Demokratie (More Democracy), are preparing a legal challenge against provisional application because they believe it would violate the German constitution.

4- Freeland continues to press for the ratification of CETA even though she has no assessment of the merits of the deal absent the UK, which is the second largest economy in the EU, Canada's largest trading partner, and represents about 10 per cent of the beef market Canada sought to gain with this deal. Even former Conservative trade minister Ed Fast, who oversaw the CETA negotiations and who wants Freeland to succeed in ratifying the deal, says a study is needed. The Canadian Press reports, "Only a detailed study, he said, can determine whether Britain’s absence from the trade grouping undermines concessions Canada made in order to win greater access for goods and services in the larger EU bloc."

5- While Freeland recently participated in the Pride parade in Toronto, Fox has voted against same-sex marriage and gay adoption rights. Fox has stated that gay marriage is "absurd", "divisive", "smacks of a form of social engineering" and that he "disagrees" that it's "simply a matter of equal rights".

In terms of a possible timeline, it is believed that the Council of the European Union could vote on the provisional application of CETA anytime between August and October 18, that Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is scheduled to sign CETA at a Canada-EU summit in Brussels on October 27-28, and that the European Parliament could vote on the ratification of CETA on December 13-15.

For recent blogs on this developing story, please see:

Does the Canadian trade minister support the provisional application of CETA? - July 9, 2016

[ http://canadians.org/blog/does-canadian ... ation-ceta ]

Canada refuses to renegotiate CETA despite Brexit vote - July 7, 2016
[ http://canadians.org/blog/canada-refuse ... rexit-vote ]

CETA appears to be on hold, Council of Canadians calls for new study of the deal - June 24, 2016
[ http://canadians.org/blog/ceta-appears- ... study-deal ]


Brent Patterson's blog
Political Director of the Council of Canadians
[ http://canadians.org/blogs/brent-patterson ]
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Re: CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

Postby Oscar » Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:03 pm

Barlow challenges CETA at Christiansborg Slot

[ http://canadians.org/blog/barlow-challe ... sborg-slot ]

September 7, 2016 - 6:46 am

Council of Canadians chairperson Maude Barlow challenged the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) at a sold-out conference held today inside the Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark.

The palace is a government building that is the seat of the Danish Parliament (Folketinget), the Danish Prime Minister's Office, and the Supreme Court of Denmark. The building is also often referred to as Rigsborgen (castle of the realm) or Borgen (the castle).

The promotion for the conference highlights (in Danish), "The TTIP Network invites you to an open conference on the CETA and TTIP at Christiansborg. This conference addresses some of the major issues on the trade agreements with presentations by leading experts and debates with politicians from both wings. During the debates politicians will also have the opportunity to ask questions of and be challenged by the experts."

Various tweets (mostly in Danish) tell us:

• Barlow speaking on Canada's experiences with NAFTA and why she refuses CETA.
• Barlow says NAFTA has undermined high environmental and social standards in Canada. CETA will do the same to EU.
• Barlow says do no forget CETA for CETA is TTIP; 42,000 US companies in Canada do not need TTIP.
• Barlow warns that CETA poses same risks for public services and environment as TTIP.
• Barlow says US multinationals will use CETA to sue, they do not need TTIP if CETA is adopted.
• Barlow says we have to create trade that secures fundamental rights, not corporate rights like TTIP and CETA.

The current Prime Minister of Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen supports CETA. He is a conservative-liberal politician who leads a coalition with his Venstre, Danmarks Liberale Parti (Left, Denmark's Liberal Party) that has the support of the Danish People's Party, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservative People's Party.

The country's previous Social Democratic government also backed CETA. In September 2014, The Globe and Mail reported, "European governments must work harder to allay fears that free trade with Canada threatens labour and environmental laws, Danish Trade Minister Mogens Jensen says.... Mr. Jensen said Denmark is a strong supporter of investor rights, pointing out that his country already has 40 such deals."

One of the featured speakers at Christiansborg today was Denmark's former prime minister Poul Oluf Nyrup Rasmussen. He was the prime minister between January 1993 and November 2001, and then a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2009. Rasmussen is opposed to CETA.

Barlow spoke against CETA in Stockholm (yesterday), is now in Copenhagen (September 7-8), and will visit Sweden's third largest city, Malmö (September 9). On September 17, she will be at the massive anti-CETA rally in Stuttgart, Germany. More than 30,000 people are expected to be at that protest.

Other key dates in the campaign to stop CETA include:

• September 22 - European Union trade ministers meet in Bratislava, Slovakia to discuss the provisional application of CETA
• September 26 - Canadian trade minister Chrystia Freeland will speak in favour of CETA at the German Social Democratic Party convention in Berlin
• October 27 - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is scheduled to be in Brussels to sign CETA
• November 29 - European Parliament International Trade Committee expected to vote on CETA
• December/January - CETA could go to the European Parliament for a plenary ratification vote

#StopCETA

Background on CETA:

[ http://canadians.org/ceta ]

Brent Patterson's blog
Political Director of the Council of Canadians
[ http://canadians.org/blogs/brent-patterson ]
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Re: CETA vulnerable to defeat: Council of Canadians

Postby Oscar » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:06 am

CETA will undermine Canadian democracy: McQuaig

[ https://www.thestar.com/opinion/comment ... quaig.html ]

The trade pact with Europe will hand foreign corporations a powerful lever for pressuring our governments to abandon environmental, health or financial regulations.

By Linda McQuaig Columnist Thu., Sept. 1, 2016

Foreign investors – including some of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful corporations – typically generate little public sympathy and aren’t usually lumped in with groups deemed worthy of special protections.

So the Trudeau government, which is in the process of granting wealthy foreign investors extraordinary legal protections and access to public money, is probably hoping the public isn’t paying much attention.

The special privileges for investors are a key part of CETA, the Canada-Europe trade deal, which Justin Trudeau is planning to sign in Brussels in October.

Opposition to the deal – particularly the investor protections – is raging across Europe, with almost 3.5 million Europeans signing a petition against CETA and a similar trade deal being negotiated with the United States.

Here in Canada, however, resistance has been fairly muted, particularly after the contentious investor protections were revised last February, in response to pressure from European social democratic parties.

Those revisions made some improvements in the deeply flawed process, but the special privileges for investors, known as Investor-State-Dispute-Settlement (ISDS), remain essentially intact. Investors will still be able to bring lawsuits over government policies they don’t like, and their lawsuits will still be decided by special tribunals where they will enjoy stronger legal protections than are available to any other group in domestic or international law.

Thus, despite the revisions, CETA will undermine Canadian democracy, handing foreign corporations a powerful lever for pressuring our governments to, for instance, abandon environmental, health or financial regulations, while leaving Canadian taxpayers potentially on the hook to pay billions of dollars in compensation to some of the wealthiest interests on earth.

The ISDS privileges, which have become increasingly common in trade deals, including the North American Free Trade Deal (NAFTA), help explain why corporations have become so powerful in recent years.

It’s often lamented that corporations now rule the world – a development typically attributed to forces beyond our control, like globalization and computer technology.

But corporate giants stalk the earth not because of forces beyond our control, but because we’ve changed laws in ways that empower them and restrict the power of our governments to regulate them. The ISDS privileges are a prime example.

But here’s the key point: we could change the laws to empower ourselves. But it’s difficult to get politicians to stand up to corporate interests.

Canada is a case in point.

MORE:

[ https://www.thestar.com/opinion/comment ... quaig.html ]
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