The United Nations and a peace process strategy for Syria
[ https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-awak ... -for-syria
Leila Hilal 26 June 2015
A NOREF policy brief providing a series of recommendations for the development of a peacemkaing strategy for Syria, led by the UN with support from key countries.
The counterterrorism effort launched by the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State coalition has sidetracked international attention away from a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. Officials, analysts and peace practitioners alike are latching on to quick fixes aimed at mitigating violence at the local level. Although stakeholders are mindful of the need to match bottom-up de-escalation efforts with top-down interventions, a comprehensive approach is as elusive as ever. The United Nations (UN) secretary-general’s appointment of a new special envoy for Syria presents an opportunity for building an inclusive peacemaking strategy for the country. This policy brief provides a series of recommendations for the development of a strategy led by the UN with support from key countries.
Introduction
The appointment of the third special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, follows the resignation of former envoys Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi. Both the latter were seasoned diplomats. Brahimi held the post the longest, serving for nearly two years and presiding over the only direct talks held between the Syrian government and the formal opposition in early 2014. The talks, based on the Geneva Communiqué adopted by the international Action Group for Syria in June 2012, failed to produce common understandings between the parties or change in the status quo. Brahimi subsequently resigned, faulting proxy warfare and international and regional discord.
De Mistura has embraced three priorities of comparative modesty: "anything to contribute to reduce the level of violence, anything we can do to increase the access of aid even across the borders and inside Syria, and promote the political process". [ http://www.sputniknews.com/politics/201 ... d-for.html ]
Since outlining these priorities, de Mistura has been promoting a plan to freeze military hostilities in areas of Syria (“freeze zones”), beginning with the highly contested Aleppo governorate and working “bottom-up”. [ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29999157 ] Following his second visit to Damascus, the Assad government indicated that it might accept the proposal while opposition representatives have expressed reservations.
An agreement to hold fire in Aleppo could bring some much-needed relief to Syrians fatigued by war. But a partial de-escalation of violence would not fill the political vacuum, which the Islamic State (IS) and other armed factions have been exploiting.
A negotiation pause is warranted. The U.S.-led military campaign in Iraq and Syria marks the convergence of anti-jihadist interests among external powers fuelling the Syrian civil war. These interests could be leveraged into a deal to force leading warring parties to accept a political transition and a complete end to armed hostilities. The five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany (P5+) are best placed to shepherd a deal.
Sufficient Syrian national consensus will, however, be needed for a durable resolution to the conflict. The UN special envoy is the appropriate interlocutor to begin building the foundations for productive Syrian negotiations while feeding into international and regional diplomacy for a grand bargain. De Mistura should adopt and purse a peace process support strategy in parallel to his efforts to freeze fighting in certain locales.
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Leila Hilal is a senior fellow at the International Security Programme at New America, currently focused on governance, political dialogue, and civil society in the MENA region. She has led conflict assessment missions including for Chatham House, the International Centre for Transitional Justice and the Euro-Med Human Rights Network. She holds a JD from SUNY Buffalo Law School and an LLM from Harvard Law School.