The 25/60 rule says Harper can be re-elected in 2015

[Oscar]

The 25/60 rule says Harper can be re-elected in 2015

[ http://rabble.ca/columnists/2014/09/256 ... ected-2015 ]

By Duncan Cameron | September 2, 2014

Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) can still win the next election, scheduled for October 2015. Yes, opinion polls have turned against the CPC. It's true many Canadians cannot abide Harper. And there is no great economic news in sight that can be used to whip up Conservative support among non-partisan voters.

Thanks to Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, Stephen Harper can repeat his 2011 victory by garnering support from one voter in four. All he needs is for four voters out of 10 to stay home.

The 25/60 rule says when only 60 per cent of Canadian citizens go out to vote, 25 per cent of the voters can deliver a majority government. In 2011, the Conservatives received 39 per cent of the vote, and won 53 per cent of the seats, because only 61 per cent of Canadians made the effort to vote.

Political power to redefine the public interest and remake the country was handed to the CPC by 24 per cent of eligible Canadians voters.

Of course to be re-elected, Harper must hold on to this core support, the fabled Conservative "base." Witness continued CPC emphasis on building pipelines, tax cuts, tough-on-crime measures, exalting the military, and portraying the leader as a tough guy.

In the last election there were far more absentee voters (39 per cent) than CPC supporters (24 per cent). The disengagement from the electoral process is the key to the success of the Conservatives in Canada and of right-wing politics elsewhere.

The Conservative strategy is to drive people away from politics and politicians. Attacking the character and suitability of rival leaders through constant television advertising, and contributing to "gotcha" journalism through a stream of commentary focusing on personal foibles helps create disgust with politics.