DOBBIN: Why is the West Spoiling for a Fight with Russia?

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DOBBIN: Why is the West Spoiling for a Fight with Russia?

[ http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/03/06/We ... th-Russia/ ]

A conflict over Ukraine would be catastrophic.

By Murray Dobbin, March 6, 2015 TheTyee.ca

What are the consequences when elected governments make policy based on faith and imperial hubris instead of science and expertise? It's a question that is forcing itself on the world as we watch the United States, Britain, NATO and the Harper government continue to up the ante in the confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine. There are real enough geo-political dangers in the world without actually creating them out of arrogance and ignorance but that is where we are right now and the consequences could be catastrophic.

Canada, Britain, the U.S. and the boys with their toys in NATO headquarters are looking for a fight with Russia. Throughout the confrontation and provocations these protagonists treat Russia as if it is some insignificant middle power that can be provoked with impunity. That is just dangerously stupid and stupidity is something the West can ill-afford given all its internal problems -- economic stagnation, unsustainable inequality, collapsing infrastructure.

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Ukraine needs billions

Canadian rhetoric is scarcely any more rational or in any way reflective of Canada's national interests. It is all bellicose stupidity disguised as concern for democracy and sovereignty. And it's mostly talk. Ukraine will need tens of billions in economic aid every year for a decade just to survive but the West has no intention of providing such largesse. We constantly encourage Ukrainian nationalism, mislead the Ukrainian people as to what we are willing to contribute and promote the false notion that Putin can be easily intimidated.

Talk of providing advanced weapons to the Ukrainian military is frighteningly irresponsible but the war-talk continues. We might expect that Canada would listen to others closer to the scene -- like Germany's Angela Merkel who is clearly alarmed at her English-speaking NATO partner's recklessness. She stated on Feb. 7: "I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily."

Harper and his senior partners seem to project the consequences of their pronouncements no more than a few hours into the future. They seem barely cognizant that there will be consequences to their actions and rhetoric. If the West and the corrupt and inept Ukrainian government (watch the parliamentary fist fight here) ever did end up in a war with Russia it would be over in two weeks. Then what would Harper, Obama and Cameron do? Will NATO invade to free the Ukraine and confront nuclear-armed Russia? Do our "leaders" have any long-term policy at all? Do they think it's all just a game?

We rarely hear from military intelligence on these matters because by its nature only the government has access to it. But it would be fascinating to know what they think of this endless provocation of Russia. We now have, thanks to David Pugliese of the Ottawa Citizen, a window onto how the military felt about another reckless Canadian enterprise -- the overthrow of Libya's Moammar Gadhafi..." According to Pugliese, [ http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/ ... ow-gadhafi ] just days before Canadian planes began bombing, the military warned the government: "There is the increasing possibility that the situation in Libya will transform into a long-term tribal/civil war. This is particularly probable if opposition forces received military assistance from foreign militaries." They further warned that removing Gadhafi (a staunch ally in the fight against Al Qaeda) would "play into the hands of" Islamic militants.

The warnings were ignored. Then foreign affairs minister John Baird demonstrated the Harper government's contempt for professional analysis and advice in his prediction of the future, declaring: "The one thing we can say categorically is that they couldn't be any worse than Col. Gadhafi." If by "worse" we mean a failed state, dozens of heavily armed militias fighting for control and ISIS now planning to use Libya as a launch pad for attacks on Europe then I guess Mr. Baird was wrong.

We are left to speculate what warnings the Canadian military are giving the Harperium regarding sophisticated weapons for the Ukrainian government.

You know things are really dangerous when one of America's pre-eminent warmongers is worried about U.S. policy. Henry Kissinger recently wrote in The Huffington Post, "Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side's outpost against the other -- it should function as a bridge between them."

Hubris and a contempt for analysis and history played out quickly Libya. There is still a chance that the world can step back from the brink in Europe. If it doesn't we will know who to blame.