Numbers Win Elections, and Here Are the Key Ones

[Oscar]

Numbers Win Elections, and Here Are the Key Ones

[ http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/04/03/Ke ... ign=030415 ]

To start, Canada's 42nd general vote is only 200 days from today.

By Will McMartin, April 3, 2015, TheTyee.ca

Politics, generally speaking, is about reason and passion, intellect and emotion.

Elections, on the other hand, always come down to numbers. Whichever party or candidate gets the larger numbers (almost always) wins.

With Canada's 42nd general election looming on Oct. 19 -- exactly 200 days from today -- what are some of the numbers Tyee readers might contemplate as E-day fast approaches?

- - - SNIP - - -

Of course, it is possible that no party will obtain the 170 needed for a secure majority. In that case, what is the number short of 170 that would allow a party to govern effectively for a period of time?

No one knows, but for argument's sake how about 155 -- the number previously needed for a majority before redistribution?

Let's say that Harper's Conservatives obtain this number by losing 11 of the seats they won four years ago. That leaves 181 seats in the hands of opposition MPs.

Suppose that Mulcair's New Democrats (who lose 13 seats) and Trudeau's Liberals (who add 56) both end up with 90 seats apiece.

The sole remaining seat is held by Elizabeth May, leader of Canada's Green Party, who wins re-election in Saanich-Gulf Islands.

How long could the Tories govern with a minority of this size? The likely answer: however long it takes for Mulcair and Trudeau to agree that it would be mutually advantageous for their parties to join together to defeat Harper.

Could the NDP and Grits then form a working coalition -- and convince Governor-General David Johnston that they deserved an opportunity to govern?

Yes, but again: such an arrangement would have to be mutually advantageous for both parties, and both party leaders. Which one -- Mulcair or Trudeau -- would agree to be the junior partner to the other?

This is all conjecture, of course. The point is, should one of Canada's major political parties win at least 170 House of Commons seats on Oct. 19, that party almost certainly will govern the country for the next four years -- until the next scheduled general election in October 2019.

But if no party attains or exceeds that number, we'll be in the realm of political and electoral uncertainty. And if no party wins at least 155, all bets are off.

MORE:

[ http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/04/03/Ke ... ign=030415 ]