Why Harper's Tories Remain Best Bet to Win

[Oscar]

Why Harper's Tories Remain Best Bet to Win

[ http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/07/20/Ha ... ign=200715 ]

No time to coast New Dems! To gain victory in October, still more lift needed in key regions.

By Will McMartin, July 20, 2015, TheTyee.ca

EXCERPT:

Where breakthroughs must happen

All in all, the Tories look likely to elect about 155 MPs in the expanded House of Commons. That's only 15 seats shy of the 170 needed for an absolute majority -- and more than enough for a solid minority.

Still, election campaigns matter. Canadians with long memories will recall many historic events that either propelled a politician and their party to power, or relegated them to the opposition benches. Will it be Stephen Harper -- soon to embark on his fifth campaign as party leader -- who makes an egregious error on the campaign trail and suffers a fatal fall in the polls, or will that dubious honour go to Mulcair or Trudeau, both of whom for the first time are leading their parties into electoral battle?

More to the point, is it remotely possible for the New Democrats to prosper from a Tory -- or a Liberal -- stumble? Of course, insofar as Mulcair's party needs to add only 30 or so redistributed seats to attain what might be a functioning minority. Still, the path to victory remains challenging.

At best, the New Democratic Party probably will pick up only singles in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Mulcair-mania perhaps could lead to the addition of a seat in each of Newfoundland (most likely: Avalon) and Nova Scotia (South Shore-St. Margaret's), plus a pair on the Prairies (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and Elmwood-Transcona).

Big gains also look to be mathematically impossible in Quebec, where the New Democrats won 61 of 78 distributed seats in 2011.

Simply, in his quest to become prime minister, Mulcair needs to make massive gains in one or more of three provinces: Alberta, B.C. and Ontario.

Alberta elected a provincial NDP government in May. As residents of B.C. and Ontario will attest, the ascension to power of provincial New Democrats has a historically negative impact on their federal cousins. The notion that a Notley government in Edmonton will per force result in sizeable Alberta gains in October for Mulcair's team is, to be polite, interesting.

That leaves British Columbia and Ontario. Four years ago, the New Democrats finished first in 11 B.C. seats, and second in another 19, while the results in Ontario were 20 firsts and 38 seconds. Could any of those second-place finishes be transformed into victories?

Two Vancouver Island ridings (North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni) appear the best bets for NDP success in B.C., but a
rising Green Party -- which scored a historic breakthrough victory in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2011 -- will make that task considerably more difficult. The fact is, any significant increase for the New Democrats in B.C. will depend on the collapse of at least two of their three major competitors -- the Tories, Grits and Greens.

In Ontario, of the 38 second-place results recorded by the NDP in 2011, just four saw the party get more than 30 per cent of the redistributed vote. As in British Columbia, sizeable New Democratic Party gains in central Canada will require a dramatic plunge in support for its major rivals.

So, election campaigns matter. So, too, does electoral math, and analysis of redistributed seats shows that the easiest path to victory belongs to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.