Nuclear Myth-Busting Series: Coalition for Clean Green Saskatchewan
IS THERE REALLY A NUCLEAR REVIVAL?
By Jim Harding, Ph. D. January 15, 2009
Since the nuclear arms race began in the 1950s the nuclear industry has operated far from populated areas in relative secrecy. This has left the public vulnerable to its strategically-planned, one-sided promotions. These circumstances have to change for there to be informed dialogue about Bruce Power’s proposed two nuclear power plants on the North Saskatchewan River. The public deserves more complete and objective information than they are getting from nuclear corporations and the mainstream media that mostly promotes them. A good place to start is with a global overview of the state of the nuclear industry. Bruce Power, its corporate partner Cameco, and their supporters in the Canada West Foundation and Sask Party government are all creating hype about a nuclear power revival and how we must get on the economic development bandwagon. But what are the facts?
DECLINE IN RECENT YEARS
In 2008 there were 439 nuclear power plants, operating in 31 countries, with 372 Gigawatts (GW) capacity. This was five fewer plants than operated in 2003. In 2008 the proportion of electricity from nuclear, worldwide, dropped to 14 % from 16 % in 2005. In 2007 five countries (Armenia, Poland, Slovakia, South Africa and Switzerland) with a total of only 11 nuclear power plants increased the nuclear share in their electrical mix, while in eleven countries the role of nuclear declined. In Western Europe there are now 146 nuclear power plants operating, down from 177 in 1989. In 2007 the EU got 28 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, down from 32 %in 2002. And nearly half (47 %) of the nuclear-generated electricity in the EU is from one country, France.
France’s dependency on nuclear power for 80% of its electricity may be reassuring for nuclear technocrats; but with aging standardized technology and growing dangers of loss-of-coolant accidents as global warming intensifies, the public will not have long-term energy security.
NEW PLANT CONSTRUCTION
Will the construction of new nuclear power plants reverse this trend? According to the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which regulates and promotes nuclear power, there were 35 new reactors under construction in fourteen countries in 2008. Eleven (11) of the 35 have been under construction for more than 20 years, and 15 of the 35 have no start-up date. The total of 35 was 18 fewer than were under construction in the late 90s. There are only 2 nuclear plants under construction in Western Europe, one in France and one in Finland. The French nuclear giant Areva is more than two years behind and 50 % over budget in Finland, where, due to “general incompetence”, it faces losses of $ 2 billion dollars. (Remember that along with Bruce Power and Cameco, Areva is on the Sask Party government’s Uranium Development Partnership.)
IS THERE AN ASIAN BOOM?
Thirty (30) of the 35 plants under construction worldwide are in Asia (19) or in Eastern Europe (11). The 14 nuclear power plants that started up between 2004-2007 were also from Asia (10) or Eastern Europe (4).
Let’s look at Asia in more depth. In 2007 there were 111 nuclear plants providing only 8 percent of the electricity in the region. And half of it (50 %) comes from one country, Japan. Japan has had serious problems with nuclear safety, having to shut down 7 plants after the earthquake in 2007, leading to a 4 % drop in electrical production in the region since 2006. China produces just 2% of its electricity from its 11 nuclear power plants. It has 6 plants under construction and several more under consideration. But there are major impediments, for China wants the transfer of French reprocessing technology as part of construction agreements with Areva, and it has to import 90 percent of the forgings for nuclear plant construction.
There are strong indications China is turning towards renewable energy. In 2007 it added more wind-generating capacity than the entire nuclear industry added worldwide. (Spain and the U.S. did the same thing.)
India produces only 3% of its electricity from its 17 nuclear power plants. Its state nuclear corporation is predicting 62 nuclear plants with 40 GW capacity by 2025, but it has consistently over-predicted nuclear growth. The country was to have 10 GW capacity by 2000, but just 22% of this (2.2. GW) was actually constructed. Unfortunately the U.S. has signed a nuclear technology transfer agreement with India even though India has not signed the already painfully compromised Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This U.S. action was opposed by 300 NGOs and 24 countries that think this will free up India’s domestic technology for nuclear weapons production. The “peaceful atom”, it seems, continues to prepare for nuclear war.
ACCURACY OF NUCLEAR PREDICTIONS
How accurate have the overall predictions of a nuclear revival been? In 1981 U.S. President Reagan predicted a “nuclear revival”, but the only nuclear growth during his two term office was 37,000 more nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) had predicted that by 1990 there would be 1,000 GW worldwide nuclear electrical capacity, but the actual amount was just 260 GW. (Twenty-eight years later there is still only 372 GW capacity). In 2005, announcing the massive state subsidies in his Nuclear Power 2010 plan, U.S. President Bush again predicted a nuclear revival. But there will be NO new nuclear power plants in the U.S. by 2010, and probably only one new plant by 2015.
REFURBISHING AGING REACTORS
The nuclear industry has maintained its present capacity not so much through new nuclear pants as by extending the operations of aging reactors. There have been 110 reactor upgrades in the U.S. since 1977. In Ontario there have been huge cost overruns in refurbishing reactors at Bruce Power, and all other Candus in operation will require expensive refurbishing or shutting down within a decade. The average age of the 119 reactors that have already been shut down worldwide was 22 years, whereas the reactors still in operation now average 24 years. Utilities want to increase the age of operation to 40 years, and even up to 60 years. Much of this cost would fall on taxpayers and the rest would fall on ratepayers.
NUCLEAR’S CREDIBILITY GAP
Let’s be very “generous” and assume that all functioning nuclear power plants could be upgraded to operate for 40 years. And let’s assume, as part of this, that the public can be convinced to accept such costly measures, even when cheaper energy options that don’t create a toxic waste stream or require water for cooling and can reduce more greenhouse gases are readily available. Then, how many nuclear power plants would have to be built for the nuclear industry to maintain the nuclear status quo? According to an analysis in the latest Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, if we exclude 20 of the 35 reactors already under construction (the ones with a start-up date), there would have to be 70 more nuclear plants on-line by 2015 (that’s in six years) and another 192 more by 2025. That’s 262 new nuclear power plants by 2025. This would require one new plant every one and one-half months until 2015 and one every 18 days after that until 2025. (See Source).
This is so farfetched that it is delusional. In addition to the 35 nuclear power plants under construction, the IAEA lists another 78 that are somewhere in the proposal and planning process. Even if these were all built and came on-line (which isn’t the way things have gone in the past), this would only be 113 new nuclear power plants, far short of the 262 plants required just to maintain the nuclear power status quo. What the industry calls a “nuclear revival” turns out to be a nuclear phase-out.
Don’t forget that the costs of decommissioning and nuclear waste management will be passed on to our children and their children, who will not get any electrical benefits from the technology. But the sooner the phase-out happens, the smaller the burden that will be passed on.
MISPLACED NUCLEAR “OPTIMISM”
In spite of these compelling mathematics, The World Nuclear Association keeps telling us to have blind faith and believe that there is a “nuclear revival.” Their confidence is misplaced, even irrational. There is not the major investment in nuclear that occurred in the 1980s; and, if anything, the financial (credit) markets are becoming more skeptical of nuclear power. (It is no accident that all nuclear plants under construction are in centrally planned economies and/or backed by state-funding.) The nuclear industry can no longer put nuclear wastes on the back burner, which makes the dangers and cost-overruns of nuclear power even more transparent to the public. And there are some very practical impediments, such as shrinking industrial capacity and skilled worker shortage. The number of nuclear suppliers in the U.S. has shrunk from 400 to 80 and the number of companies certified to work in this industry has shrunk from 900 to 200 since the 1980s. Fourty percent of current nuclear plant workers (just 8 % of whom are under 32) are eligible for retirement within 5 years. And the upcoming generation of workers would rather train in renewable energy to bring about conversion to a sustainable society.
But it is in the interests of Bruce Power and Cameco to have Saskatchewan people believe in a nuclear revival. While a pipe-dream, the boom mentality keeps the hearts and minds of Saskatchewan business and political elites distracted from the vital ethical questions of sustainability and inter-generational responsibility. Bruce Power and Cameco may not believe their own propaganda, but they clearly want to get the profits from the uranium-nuclear market while it lasts. Since Bruce Power is in the business of making money from the highly subsidized nuclear power industry, it, of course, will do whatever it can to convince us to support them. But the public here and elsewhere cannot afford to be damned with the long-term consequences. There is likely no other industry where corporate amorality and immorality is as dangerous to the planet and its creatures. The sooner it is shut down and replaced by sustainable energy the better for us and future generations. Thankfully the process is already underway. Now the people of Saskatchewan need to join hands with others to accomplish this.
-------------------------------
NOTE: Jim Harding is a retired professor of environmental studies (University of Waterloo) and justice studies (University of Regina) and author of Canada’s Deadly Secret; Saskatchewan Uranium and the Global Nuclear System (Fernwood, 2007).
SOURCE: The major source of information is “2008 World Nuclear Industry Status Report”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nov./Dec. 2008.
CONTACT CLEAN GREEN SASK:
cleangreensask@yahoo.ca