Feds’ electoral reform in doubt, pollsters say one broken promise won’t sink Liberals, but more could spell trouble
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After six months of work and a $700,000 price tag, Democratic Minister Maryam Monsef said she was ‘disappointed’ in the House Electoral Reform Committee. She later apologized, but also said the will of Canadians is still unclear. Meanwhile, the government sent out more than 13 million postcards asking Canadians to participate in an online survey on electoral reform.
By LAURA RYCKEWAERT PUBLISHED : Monday, Dec. 5, 2016 12:00 AM
PARLIAMENT HILL—There are doubts the government will keep its election campaign promise to replace the first-past-the-post electoral system by 2019, but pollsters say one broken promise on electoral reform alone would unlikely sink the Liberal ship, however, more than one could be trouble down the road.
“If you’re looking at this through the political cost of inaction of breaking this promise, it’s probably one of the few that the government won’t feel too much pain over,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, in an interview with The Hill Times.
“This is not a government-killing promise, by itself,” he said, as it’s an outspoken, but “small minority” who think major changes are needed.
The issue of electoral reform is one that’s “very difficult to get Canadians excited” and “passionate” about, he said.
“That being said, where I do see some risk for the government, in my view, is around the narrative that could develop that the government’s not keeping its promises, that this could be one of many to come … it might start a media narrative and a broader discussion about how the government can’t achieve its objectives and that becomes more risky or creates more vulnerability,” he said.
Mr. Coletto said if the government declared its commitment on electoral reform dead, he wouldn’t expect to see poll numbers drop.
Shachi Kurl, executive director at the Angus Reid Institute, said polling suggests that electoral reform is “hardly a top of mind issue” for Canadians.
“There are other issues that could have the potential to hurt this Liberal government much more than not making a change on electoral reform, that isn’t to say it might not hurt them in some circles” she said, but that’s a small subsect of the population.
A poll by Angus Reid published on Nov. 29, conducted online with 1,516 respondents, found that while 75 per cent wanted a referendum on any major changes to be held, about 66 per cent of respondents saw changing Canada’s voting system as a low priority. Asked to choose between first-past-the-post and four alternative voting systems, respondents were largely split. As well, 43 per cent said they strongly or moderately favoured keeping the current system, while 21 per cent said they didn’t care either way and 37 per cent moderately or strongly favoured change.
But Ms. Kurl cautioned ambivalence doesn’t always mean resistance, and it could simply be a situation where Canadians have a lot on their minds, including the economy, jobs, health care and security issues.
“Canadians are very divided on this issue as it stands … [but] there is a recognition of potential benefits of a change,” she said.